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Posted By Topic: Randomness will have the last word.       - Views: 49 Change Timezone:
Mangocharlie
21-Sep 2019 Saturday 1:26 PM (251 days ago)
danielsim, 4DTOTOMAN and T.k.Ho  3 Likes  
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It does not much matter at all whether you are a treasure hunter, job seeker, gambling, high roller, trading, investing on shares or running a business (big business or selling kachang puteh). All of them entail a fair degree of risk and a lot of hard work sprinkled with a generous helping of luck.






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Mangocharlie
06-Nov 2019 Wednesday 12:57 AM (205 days ago)            #2
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People need to learn that freedom of speech, doesn't mean freedom from the consequences of said speech.
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Mangocharlie
02-Dec 2019 Monday 4:02 AM (179 days ago)            #3
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The market doesn't care whether you have achieved your goal or not, it will always go its own way, and if you can make a profit on an expected future value basis, you should go for it, Luck is random, but the skill will persist. And don't ever throw it out.
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Mangocharlie
27-Mar 2020 Friday 3:08 PM (63 days ago)            #4
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There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking and horse selections are two good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it’s been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.
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Let's be more realistic.
An expert in any field will have an advantage over a mug person. But neither the expert nor the mug person can be sure of when or where his next winner will come from. But the expert will just have a better guess and advantage. Unless of course you happen to be in the right place at the right time and the right genuine people you associate with to get the advantage.
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Mangocharlie
29-Mar 2020 Sunday 3:59 PM (61 days ago)            #5
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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets -Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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SEROTONIN AND RANDOMNESS
Can we judge the success of people by their raw performance and their personal wealth? Sometimes but not always. We will see how, at any point in time, a large section of businessmen with outstanding track records will be no better than randomly thrown darts. More curiously, and owing to a peculiar bias, cases will abound of the least-skilled businessmen being the richest. However, they will fail to make an allowance for the role of luck in their performance.
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Lucky fools do not bear the slightest suspicion that they may be lucky fools - by definition, they do not know that they belong to such category. They will act as if they deserved the money. Their strings of successes will inject them with so much serotonin (or some similar substance) that they will even fool themselves about their ability to outperform markets (our hormonal system does not know whether our successes depend on randomness). One can notice it in their posture; a profitable trader will walk upright, dominant "style - and will tend to talk more than a losing trader. Scientists found out that serotonin, a neurotransmitter, seems to command a large share of our human behavior. It sets a positive feedback, the virtuous circle, but, owing to an external kick from randomness, can start a reverse motion and cause a vicious circle. It has been shown that monkeys injected with serotonin will rise in the pecking order, which in turn causes an increase of the serotonin level in their blood - until the virtuous cycle breaks and starts a vicious one (during the vicious cycle failure will cause one to slide in the pecking order, causing a behavior that will bring about further drops in the pecking order). Likewise, an increase in personal performance (regardless of whether it is caused deterministically or by the agency of lady Fortuna) induces a rise of serotonin in the subject, itself causing an increase of what is commonly called leadership ability. One is "on a roll". Some imperceptible changes in deportment, like an ability to express oneself with serenity and confidence, makes the subject look credible - as if he truly deserved the shekels. Randomness will be ruled out as a possible factor in the performance, until it rears its head once again and delivers the kick that will induce the vicious cycle.
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Mangocharlie
31-Mar 2020 Tuesday 2:49 PM (59 days ago)            #6
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“Finding patterns is easy in any kind of data-rich environment; that’s what mediocre gamblers do. The key is in determining whether the patterns represent signal or noise.” — Nate Silver
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Mangocharlie
31-Mar 2020 Tuesday 10:07 PM (58 days ago)            #7
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If we want to be competent and also Lady Luck to shine on us, we must learn to put ourselves in the right situations, take advantage of the right opportunities and accomplish our goals through a lot of hard work via in depth study of that subjects.
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Mangocharlie
15-May 2020 Friday 2:57 PM (14 days ago)            #8
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Opinions are like armpits - everyone has them and most of the time they stink. Unless we are putting money on it otherwise nothing is at stake.


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